24/07/2024
Update
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 13
Typhoon CARINA (GAEMI)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 22 July 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
TYPHOON “CARINA” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
• Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of Typhoon CARINA was estimated based on all available data at 375 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan or 375 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.5°N, 125.2°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
• Present Movement
Northwestward at 15 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
○ Wind threat: Strong winds
○ Warning lead time: 36 hours
○ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
○ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, Babuyan Isalnds, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Pamplona, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Alcala), the eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, Dinapigue, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria), the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela), the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Bangui, Adams, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar), the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran), Polillo Islands, Calaguas Islands, and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto, Caramoran)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Today to Tomorrow noon (23 July)
• 100-200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, the northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the eastern portion of Isabela.
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Tomorrow noon (23 July) to Wednesday noon (24 July)
• 100-200 mm: Batanes
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Wednesday noon (24 July) to Thursday noon (25 July)
• 50-100 mm: Batanes
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon tonight through Thursday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 26 issued at 11:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
Minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds may be experienced within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Tonight to tomorrow: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Region
• Wednesday: Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao
• Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon (2.0 to 4.0 m) and western seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Western Visayas (1.5 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Moderate seas are also expected over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao (1.5 to 2.0 m). Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally north northwestward or northward from tonight until tomorrow (23 July) while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. On the track forecast, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass. It is also forecast to make landfall over the northern portion of Taiwan between Wednesday (24 July) evening or Thursday (25 July) morning, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) hours later. Outside the PAR, CARINA will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over southeastern China on Thursday afternoon or evening.
• CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify and may reach its peak intensity within the next two days due to favorable environment. Rapid intensification within the forecast period remains likely. Its landfall over northern Taiwan and subsequently over southeastern China will trigger a weakening trend.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
