12/31/2023
Well, the Department of Homeland Security If decided it's not important enough to conduct a threat assessment on New Year's Eve events. In the past they have done them for presidential inaugurations, Super Bowls, hotels, and even special events but they didn't specifically do one for this New Year's Eve coming up.
In collaboration with Homeland Security, the FBI, and Law Enforcement officials, here is my threat assessment for New Year's Eve 2023.
This assessment is not marked classified and is not law enforcement sensitive nor FOUO. This is the work of a private sector consultant and is intended to provide awareness to the general public.
New Year's Eve is a global celebration that marks the end of one year and the beginning of another. It's a time when people come together to bid farewell to the past and welcome the future with joy and excitement. however, like any large-scale event, New Year's Eve also poses certain threats and risks that need to be addressed in order to ensure the safety and security of participants.
1. Crowd Management and Safety
One of the primary concerns during New Year's Eve celebrations is managing large crowds. popular public gathering places such as city centers, squares, and tourist attractions attract a significant number of people, which can create challenges related to crowd control, safety, and emergency response. The sheer volume of attendees can lead to overcrowding, stampedes, or accidents if not properly managed. Local authorities and event organizers must develop comprehensive crowd control management plans include measures such as crowd flow management, adequate security personnel deployment, emergency evacuation procedures, medical support availability, and communication systems.
2. Terrorism
In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the potential threat of terrorism during major public events. New Year's Eve celebrations are no exception. terrorist organizations may view these gatherings as attractive targets due to the large concentration of people and media attention. attacks could range from bombings or shootings to vehicle ramming incidents. security agencies around the world worked diligently together intelligence, monitor potential threats, and enhance security measures during this time. public spaces are often subject to increased police presence, surveillance technology Allergy deployment, and strict access controls to mitigate potential terrorist activities.
3. Kidnapping and Human Trafficking Threats
Kidnapping and human trafficking are significant concerns during large public gatherings, such as New Year's Eve celebrations. the heightened emotions, increased consumption of alcohol and crowded environments can create opportunities for criminals to take advantage of unsuspecting individuals. Here are specific threats posed by criminal activities during New Year's Eve.
Kidnapping Threats
Kidnapping threats during New Year's Eve celebrations can manifest in various forms, such as abductions for ransom, personal disputes, or as part of organized criminal activities. in some cases, criminals may target specific individuals or groups, while others may pray on vulnerable individuals who are separated from their friends or family.
Human Trafficking Threats
Human trafficking is another significant concern during New Year's Eve celebrations. traffickers may use the chaos and distractions of large events to lure unsuspecting individuals into situations of forced labor or sexual exploitation. the increased presence of law enforcement and security personnel during such events can sometimes deter traffickers; However they may still seek opportunities to exploit vulnerable individuals.
4. Fireworks Accidents
Fireworks are a common element of New Year's Eve celebrations in many countries. while they add color and excitement to the festivities, they also pose risks if not handled properly. accidents can occur due to miss handling of fireworks or technical malfunctions. these accidents may result in injuries to individuals, fires in nearby structures or vegetation, and damage to property. Local authorities typically enforce regulations regarding the sale, use, and storage of fireworks to minimize these risks. Additionally, fire departments and emergency services are often on Standby during New Year's Eve celebrations to respond promptly to any incidents.
5. Alcohol-related Incidents
Alcohol consumption is often a significant part of New Year's Eve celebrations. excessive drinking can lead to a range of issues, including impaired judgment, aggressive behavior, violence, and accidents. drunk driving is a particular concern during this time, as people may choose to drive under the influence after attending parties or events. law enforcement agencies typically conducts a variety checkpoints and increase patrols to deter and apprehend intoxicated drivers. public awareness campaigns promoting responsible alcohol consumption and alternative transportation options can also help mitigate these risks.
6. Theft and Property Crimes
The large crowds and potential for disorderly conduct can create opportunities for theft and other property crimes. security measures should be in place to monitor and prevent these incidents.
7. Personal Safety
Individuals attending New Year's Eve celebrations should be mindful of their personal safety. pick pocketing, theft, and other forms of opportunistic crimes canoccur in crowded areas where people may be distracted or less vigilant. It is advisable to keep valuable secure, be aware of surroundings, travel in groups when possible, and avoid isolated or poorly lit areas. Event organizers often work with local law enforcement agencies to enhance security measures and provide information on personal safety tips.
8. Potential Threats
With heightened tensions in the Middle East, and the war between Israel and Hamas, The FBI, the US Department of Homeland Security and 10 other law enforcement agencies says the Israel-Hamas war has created a heightened threat environment. The war in gaza has contributed to the concern of lone Wolf attacks. The intelligence community remains concerned about lone Wolf offenders using online platforms to express threats of violence against jewish, Muslim, and Arab communities as well as committing simple, unsophisticated attacks that are difficult to detect in advance. However, there are no specific reports regarding any threats.
The FBI, Homeland security and other law enforcement agencies are pinpointing San Francisco as a direct source of concern. San Francisco remains an attractive target for foreign terrorist organizations, home grown violent extremist, and domestic violent extremists as well as loan offenders. However, there are no specific reported threats.
Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted the New York City Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. During APEC in San Francisco, Pro-Palestinian protesters shut down the bay bridge for several hours.
There currently are no indications or specific, credible threats at this time, however, law enforcement agencies across the United States are especially vigilant.
Prepared for public dissemination by:
Maj. Jeffrey S. Grant, CMAS-PSM, ATO, CHSP
Law Enforcement, Security, and Crime Prevention. Consultant and Trainer
Human Trafficking Investigator
Organized Retail Crime Investigator
Violence and Threat Specialist
© 2023 Maj. Jeffrey S. Grant. All rights reserved
