11/01/2026
โ ๏ธ ๐๐๐ข๐ข๐ ๐ช๐๐ฅ๐ก๐๐ก๐ โ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐ก๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐ฅ๐ & ๐๐ข๐ช๐ฉ๐๐๐
A multi-day ๐๐๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ง๐ฅ๐ข๐ฃ๐๐๐ rainfall event is likely, but there is still some uncertainty.
I want to be very honest with you.
This weather system has the potential to become one of the most serious flood events we have seen in decades for southern Mozambique, the Kruger National Park and the Lowveld.
This is not something I take lightly.
Here at Vox Weather, we are watching this system constantly, comparing all the models with what is actually happening on the ground.
This is what we are seeing right now.
๐ญ) ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ
To understand what may happen next, we first need to look at which weather model is performing best.
From Saturday into Sunday morning (8am), the ECMWF model and the SAWS UM04 models predicted much heavier rain than the GFS model, and that is exactly what happened.
Here are the top 5 rainfall totals that were actually measured:
Mpumalanga
Graskop AWS โ 113 mm
Bushbuckridge AWS โ 66 mm
Komatidraai โ 76 mm
Skukuza โ 38 mm
Hazyview Airfield โ 37 mm
Limpopo
Tshanowa Primary School โ 82 mm
Tzaneen Westfalia Estate โ 63 mm
Punda Maria โ 51 mm
Kruger Shangoni โ 37 mm
Malonga AWS โ 22 mm
This tells us that, for this system, the ECMWF model is currently the most reliable.
๐ฎ) ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐
What worries me most is that the ECMWF model is now consistently showing extreme rainfall over several days, in places more than 400 mm in just 72 hours and over 700 mm in 6 days.
Even though some other models are not as extreme yet, we have to look at what has already happened.
โข Heavy rain has already fallen
โข The ground is already saturated
โข Rivers are already running high
Even rainfall that normally would not be a problem could now become dangerous.
๐ฏ) ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฏ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด
The Google Flood Hub does not focus on rainfall alone.
It looks at rivers and flooding, using rainfall, soil moisture, river levels and upstream runoff to estimate flood risk.
Right now it is indicating that parts of the Kruger National Park could experience the highest river levels in more than 46 years, which is extremely serious.
You can see this on the live map here:
https://sites.research.google/floods/l/-25.342679447353856/30.172153501059242/6.399415985740481
It is also important to note that northern KwaZulu-Natal is at risk, and this risk could increase further as we move into the week.
๐ฐ) ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด
Because the models are still changing, I am careful not to push long-range totals that could cause unnecessary panic.
But over the next 72 hours from Sunday to Tuesday night, the ECMWF (left) is still showing more than 400 mm in parts of the Kruger, the Lowveld and southern Mozambique.
The GFS model (right) has shifted the heaviest rain further north into Mozambique and Zimbabwe, but it still keeps heavy rain over the northern Lowveld.
So even though the exact position is uncertain, the risk is still very real for all of us in this region.
๐ฑ) ๐ข๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐
The South African Weather Service has already issued an
๐ง Orange Level 9 warning for flooding in the Lowveld.
This is a high-impact warning, meaning lives, homes, roads and bridges could be affected.
๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ
Yes, there is still uncertainty, but that does not mean there is no danger.
This system is still pulling huge amounts of moisture from the Indian Ocean, and even a small shift could change who is hit the hardest.
This is not a one-day storm.
It is a multi-day flooding setup.
I truly believe now is the time to start preparing, not waiting.
It costs us nothing to be ready, but it can cost everything if we are not.
Please stay alert, follow official warnings, avoid rivers and low-lying areas, and ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ฆ๐ share this message so others can prepare too.
If we look out for each other, we can save lives.
Meteorologist Annette Botha
