01/06/2024
Today, June 1st, marks the start of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.
𝘽𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙯𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙖 𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙬𝙤 (2) 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙩 𝙨𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣𝙨, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 "𝙬𝙚𝙩" 𝙖𝙣𝙙 "𝙙𝙧𝙮" 𝙨𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙮. 𝙊𝙪𝙧 𝙬𝙚𝙩 𝙨𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙟𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘼𝙩𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝘽𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣 𝙃𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙘𝙝 𝙧𝙪𝙣𝙨 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙅𝙪𝙣ᴇ 1ꜱᴛ 𝙩𝙤 𝙉𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 30ᴛʜ 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙 𝙎𝙚𝙥𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 10𝙩𝙝.
Please take a look at the excerpt below from NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) on this year's Seasonal Hurricane Outlook.
You can read the entire the article at:
https://www.noaa.gov/.../noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024...
Regional tropical outlooks, local weather forecasts and climatological outlooks, etc., are also available on the National Meteorological Service of Belize's website: https://nms.gov.bz/
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"𝗡𝗢𝗔𝗔 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲-𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗔𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗵𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻"
La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity
"NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation."
"As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane."
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