09/03/2026
Mike’s Forecast for the Winter of 2026 🌨️
Since “Mike’s Forecasts” have been on the money the last two years, it’s time to listen to the weather oracle’s prediction for the 2026 season.
🌨️ Spring 2025/26 and early summer through January 2026 were very wet. The remainder of summer has been relatively dry, with occasional cold temperatures. Rainfall statistics point toward a mildly wet, precipitation-rich and snowy winter.
The reason is simple: the variance from the average annual rainfall at Lake Ōhau Station has been relatively small. In short, when summer trends dry, winter tends to deliver more moisture and snowfall up on the mountain.
Another factor at play this year is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather cycle. According to Earth Sciences NZ and NIWA’s Seasonal Climate Outlook (February–April 2026):
“The weakening of La Niña conditions is expected to accelerate in the coming months, with about an 80% chance for ENSO-neutral conditions to return by the end of the forecast period.”
This means we could see strengthening El Niño conditions heading into winter. El Niño typically brings stronger, colder south-west winds, resulting in wetter conditions in the west and drier conditions in the east — a pattern that sits right up Ōhau Snow Fields’ alley.
Looking back over the 36 seasons we’ve been operating, my observation is that strengthening El Niño years have often delivered plenty of snow and excellent skiing and snowboarding conditions.
With this in mind, and considering the dates of the July school holidays, Ōhau’s planned season dates are:
❄️ Opening Day: 27 June 2026
❄️ School Holidays Begin: 4 July 2026
❄️ Closing Day: 4 October 2026 (the middle Sunday of the September school holidays) 🌨️
⛷️Happy skiing and riding! 🏂
Season passes are available online now — link in bio 🔗