09/09/2026
Yes. This is a legitimate concern, especially for water supply and agriculture in Central Visayas. PAGASAβs latest monitoring says a moderate to strong El NiΓ±o is present, and climate models indicate it may persist into the first half of 2027, with a possibility of becoming very strong before the end of 2026.
For the coming weeks, PAGASAβs sub-seasonal forecasts show that much of the Visayas may experience below-normal rainfall, although rainfall can still occur from thunderstorms, monsoon effects, or other weather systems.
πΎ What this means for Central Visayas
Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor should be monitored closely for:
π§ Declining water levels in reservoirs, wells, springs and other water sources
π± Agricultural stress, particularly for rain-dependent crops
βοΈ Dry spells that can affect planting and crop growth
π° Possible water shortages if prolonged rainfall deficits develop
π₯ Increased risk of grassland and forest fires during prolonged dry periods
π‘οΈ Higher temperatures that can increase water consumption
Importantly, El NiΓ±o does not mean that it will never rain. A place can still experience heavy rain or thunderstorms while having below-normal rainfall overall for the month or season.
PAGASA itself notes that El NiΓ±o increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which can lead to dry spells and drought in vulnerable areas.
π A timely reminder
For communities in Central Visayas, this is the time to conserve water before a serious shortage develops: repair leaking pipes, avoid unnecessary water use, protect local springs and watersheds, and prepare farmers for possible changes in planting schedules.
The present situation should be closely monitored rather than taken lightly, especially because PAGASA expects the El NiΓ±o episode to continue well beyond the next few months.
