04/03/2026
I mean, I don’t want the northwestern states to struggle with drought and wild fires…but, uh, I’ll take this forecast for AZ
💃💃💃
This is a look at one of the most recent seasonal model runs relating to the summer precipitation departures from normal. A few things immediately stand out, which are noted on the graphic. This summer could feature above normal precipitation across the Southern Plains which could lead to cooler temperatures than normal. This doesn't mean it won't be hot but maybe it won't be weeks-months worth of 100s - instead, maybe lower to mid-90s. This can and does happen when going from La Niña to El Niño. Similarly, this particular model is showing above normal precipitation across the Southwest, possibly signaling a good monsoon season. It should also be noted, that the marine heatwave off the southwest coast paired with a developing El Niño could lead to tropical moisture and/or systems [remnants] trying to move up into the Southwest U.S. Contrarily, this model is signaling for below normal precipitation for the Northwest. This paired with the lower than normal snowpack could lead to a dangerous wildfire 'season' this year. Another interesting observation is the signal for above normal precipitation along the Gulf and East coasts. This sometimes can point toward more tropical activity but with a developing El Niño, historically, one would expect less in the way of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. However, that shear does more heavily impact the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic so possibly more homegrown activity at times in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast. These are preliminary observations, and while seasonal models shouldn't necessarily be taken verbatim and cannot pinpoint specifics, seasonal models can be very helpful with precipitation anomalies [and/or temperature] over periods such as summer [like this], winter, spring, etc. and are especially useful for identifying larger scale patterns tied to ENSO and other teleconnections
