Tim LaBorde Team: Real Estate & Hedge Fund Advisory

10/14/2026

tion came in hotter than expected in September. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the past year, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast. Gasoline did most of the damage, up 9.1% in a single month, with energy overall up 5.2%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% and sits at 2.6% year over year. Bond markets reacted fast: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.308%, and traders raised the odds of another Fed rate hike on October 28 from about 22% to about 39%. For Houston, it lands two ways. Drivers are paying it at the pump right now. And mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, so with yields this high, rates stay up too, which means a bigger monthly payment for anyone financing a home.

Core CPI at a 2.6% annual rate.

10/11/2026

Hurricane Isaias made landfall Friday night near Pensacola as a Category 2, the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. Four states declared emergencies. Over 60% of Gulf oil production was shut in ahead of the storm, which could push gas prices higher here in Houston in the coming weeks.

10/06/2026

Banks repossessed 42% more homes this August than a year ago, according to ATTOM, and Houston led the nation with 448 completed foreclosures. Texas posted 1,835, more than triple California. National foreclosure filings are up 13% year over year, though activity remains below pre-pandemic levels.

US foreclosures continued to climb in August, with bank repossessions surging 42% from a year ago as more distressed homeowners lost their properties.

10/01/2026

This is pretty much what I’m seeing in Houston right now.

HousingWire is calling it a “choice market.” Buyers have more houses to choose from, homes are sitting longer, and about 40% of Houston listings have already had a price reduction.

On top of that, resale sellers are competing with builders offering rate buydowns and huge incentives that a normal homeowner just can’t compete with.

It doesn’t mean houses aren’t selling. They are. But buyers have options now, and if a house is overpriced they can just move on to the next one.

Takeaway for sellers: Price it right from the beginning. Chasing the market down with $5k price cuts every few weeks can cost you more than pricing it correctly upfront.

Takeaway for buyers: You have leverage again. Don’t just negotiate price. Ask for closing costs, repairs, rate buydowns or other concessions that might save you more money than a small price reduction.

Very different market than a few years ago.

About 42% of listings have seen their prices reduced, according to HousingWire Data, above the roughly 30% to 35% range considered normal.

09/21/2026

Builders are not slowing down.

Another 1,130-home community is coming near Waller, with sales expected to begin in spring 2027.

These homes will be built in phases, so they are not all hitting the market at once. But this is one of several large developments planned around Waller and Highway 290. Builders are continuing to add supply even as resale demand softens.

That gives buyers more choices. It also creates another challenge for resale sellers. They are not just competing against other homeowners. They are competing against builders offering new homes, subsidized mortgage rates and closing-cost assistance.

This pressure will not be limited to Waller. Any Houston-area market with heavy new construction will feel it. Resale sellers will need realistic pricing or something the builder cannot easily duplicate, such as a better location, larger lot, mature neighborhood or substantial upgrades.

One of Houston's fastest-growing suburbs continues to expand.

09/10/2026

The latest HAR numbers came out yesterday, and Houston is becoming a little more buyer-friendly.

Here’s what happened in August compared with last year:

• Single-family sales fell 11.5%
• Median price fell 1.5% to $330,000
• Inventory remained at 5.3 months
• Homes averaged 54 days on market, up from 52

Prices are mostly holding, with many homeowners still wearing golden handcuffs because of their low mortgage rates. But demand has clearly softened, giving buyers more time and negotiating room.

The part I’m watching most closely is the $250,000 to $499,999 range. Sales in that segment fell 13.7%. That covers a large portion of suburban Houston.

Another major factor is new construction. In any Houston-area market with heavy builder activity, resale owners are competing against builder inventory, subsidized mortgage rates and closing-cost assistance that an individual seller usually cannot match.

That means a resale should be priced against the builder’s effective monthly payment, not just the builder’s advertised price.

Oil complicates the picture. Brent crude closed above $100 on September 9. Sustained high oil prices can eventually bring more money and employment into Houston. But higher oil can also feed inflation and keep mortgage rates elevated. The latest average contract rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage reached approximately 6.85%.

My read: Houston remains stable, but buyers have gained some leverage as the market continues moving toward more normal conditions and better balance. In areas with substantial new construction, sellers need realistic pricing, a better location, a better lot or something else builders cannot easily duplicate.

Official HAR report:
https://www.har.com/content/department/mls

08/28/2026

Houston led the country in completed foreclosures in July.
According to ATTOM, 405 Houston-area properties went back to lenders last month. Texas also led the nation in foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures.

We’re still well below the foreclosure levels seen before the pandemic, so this isn’t 2008 all over again. But the trend is worth watching. Foreclosure filings nationally are up 10% from last year, and completed foreclosures are up 23%.

For Houston investors, this could mean more distressed inventory hitting the market over the next several months.

ATTOM reports 39,906 U.S. foreclosure filings in July, up 1% from June and 10% from July 2025, but still below pre-pandemic levels.

06/26/2026

A Houston real estate report just came out: New home prices slipped slightly in May while sales increased.

To me, the more interesting questions are these:

Are builders negotiating more?

From what I’m seeing, yes. Not necessarily by cutting the list price, but through closing cost credits, rate buy-downs, upgrades, and other incentives that don’t always show up in the MLS.

Should buyers ask for a lower price or a rate buy-down?

Ask for both. If you’re financing the purchase, a rate buy-down can often have a bigger impact on your monthly payment than a small price reduction.

Should resale sellers pay attention?

Absolutely. You’re no longer competing only against the house down the street. You’re competing against builders offering brand-new homes, warranties, and incentives.

The headline is that prices dipped a little.

The bigger story is that buyers may have more negotiating power than they realize.

What are you seeing out there? Are builders becoming more flexible in your area?

A new HomesUSA.com report tracking the sales of new homes in the Houston metro has revealed a promising increase in May's new home sales, and improving prices are allowing new homes to sell at a slightly faster rate than in April.

06/09/2026

Apparently some people think buyers hold secret meetings.

They all gather around a table...

Laugh evil laughs...

And agree to lowball every deal.

Except that's not what happens.

Independent buyers don't know each other.

They simply review the same house.

The same rehab.

The same risks.

And sometimes they arrive at the same conclusion.

One low offer is an opinion.

Five similar offers are information.

Consensus is expensive to ignore.

Sometimes the market gives you an answer.

You just don't like it.

Tim LaBorde

06/09/2026

"We just need a buyer."

I've heard that countless times.

The problem is that buyers don't create value.

They measure it.

If five buyers walk the same property, review the same numbers, and all reach the same conclusion, that's not bad luck.

That's feedback.

No offer.

Weak offer.

No interest.

Most people call that a buyer problem.

Experienced investors call it market feedback.

The market doesn't care what you hoped the deal was worth.

The market tells you what it's worth.

The buyers are just delivering the message.

Tim LaBorde