06/04/2026
Will we get lucky?
By now you've probably heard plenty of hype about the chances of seeing the northern lights tonight (Thursday, June 4). Some forecasts — especially from local meteorologists — add a significant degree of confidence, going so far as to say exactly when we'll definitely experience a show. This post is to temper expectations and throw a bit of actual science into the mix.
First, what's happening? Over the past few days, the sun has emitted several large bursts of charged particles into space. These are known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. Models indicate a decent amount of these particles are zooming across space toward Earth and are likely to hit our atmosphere sometime today. In addition, there is also a faster-than-usual solar wind (also composed of charged particles) aimed in Earth's general direction. These charged particles are the necessary ingredient for strong geomagnetic storms and displays of the aurora here on Earth.
Second, will we get to see the northern lights? How strong will they be? The answer here is, it depends, and we won't really know until it happens. Space weather is notoriously difficult to predict. Some CMEs travel faster than anticipated; others, slower. Multiple CMEs moving toward Earth at various speeds complicates matters further. What happens if a faster CME catches up to a slower one? What effect will the solar wind have? There are a ton of variables in play, and anybody offering an honest analysis will tell you that we just don't know right now when or even if the particles will hit Earth and trigger the northern lights.
What do we know? The most important thing is that space weather experts are fairly confident the CMEs will hit Earth. The NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G3 storm watch, which is quite high on the scale. The predicted arrival time of the charged particles is Thursday afternoon EDT, plus or minus eight hours. We haven't seen much yet, so perhaps the particles are running behind schedule. Current space weather data still indicate that *something* remains on the way.
What next? For now, keep monitoring the data. Charge your camera batteries and cellphones. Then, we wait. This time of year, the sky remains too bright to see all but the strongest northern lights until after 10 p.m., and by a little after 4 a.m., the impending arrival of dawn cuts the show short on the other end. Plus we have a bright just-past-full moon to contend with for half the night. During the darkest hours, go outside, away from city lights, and look north. You can use a camera — even the one on your phone — to take a test image; cameras are better than the human eye at perceiving color in the dark.
I've also written a bit about how I monitor real-time space weather data and some key indicators to watch when deciding whether to chase the northern lights. I'll include a link to that post in the comments.
This image is from an outstanding aurora display early Oct. 8, 2024, above Malletts Bay on Lake Champlain in Colchester, Vermont.
