02/06/2026
Fyi
Where are the sardines this year?
Where are the sardines this year? The last 5 sardine runs were spectacular. Reminiscent of old times, as the sardines just kept on coming. Net after net. Nobody went without. You can analyse each of those sardine runs on The Sardine News website at thesardine.co.za. We have been keeping records there since 2021.
Each of those years was bang on time, as the Agulhas picked up speed timeously and created the powerful countercurrent that the sardines use to travel north along the coast, on the inside of the Agulhas Current. This counter current is cold. It is initially formed by a phenomenon called the Natal Pulse. When the current speeds up and hits that huge shelf out off of Durban, the Agulhas gets a 'speed wobble' and these huge eddies and gyres form. When these huge moving bodies of water interact, a cold water upwelling occurs. And it is in this cold water that the sardines find themselves in, as it sneaks north up on the inside of the Agulhas.
This year, there is no counter current. Yet. The water right up and down the coast has been remarkably warm. The Agulhas has come right up against the coastline; it is crystal clear everywhere at the moment.
The outfit GoDive has been operating out of Cintsa for the past few weeks. And they have not seen a single sardine. Only tonnes of mackerel about 30ft down, and acres of red-eye sardines. The full spread of predators is 'in the house'. Marauding these substitute baitfish as if they were sardines.
However, we have already got a few sardine encounters logged in KZN for this year. In April, skiboaters off Durban and the South Coast were catching sardines in amongst the mackerel and red-eyes. And a mystery shoal popped up further south where a kayak angler actually foul-hooked what would appear to be a genuine Natal sardine!
Some people reckon that these sardines were leftovers from last year and were simply lost and living here. But, I was in Pemba a while back, and for weeks, netting boats were coming back with shoal after shoal of what appeared to be Natal sards. Exactly the same in appearance. Spots and all. They even netted some baby black marlin by mistake, which were feeding on these sardines. And further north, towards the Gulf of Aden, they have a sardine run there too.
Puzzled, I asked Garry Hooke about it, and he told me about the grey sardine. The same in appearance, but they love warm, tropical water. And they live up north in the Pemba area. In the Bazaruto Archipelago, there are all kinds of sardines - different to the Natal and the grey. Shiny, smaller varieties. But, there are the same sardines with the spots there too!
So, I am leaning towards a theory that the sardines we have been encountering in KZN have come down with the warm Agulhas Current.
For this year, we have a Super El Niño. Ocean temperatures are warmer across the globe. How this affects our dear cold counter current from kicking in, I am not sure. But our Natal sardines do not do warm water. And without that cold conveyor belt, this might just be a year that the sardines don't make it to KZN at all. Interestingly, the El Niño cycle last occurred 6 years ago, a year when we hardly had any sardines at all, and the ones that did swim past all stayed out deep.
STOP PRESS!
The GoDive team encountered real actual sardines out off Kwelera yesterday!
